#3 Southern California vs. #30 Iowa/Wyoming

#3 Southern California
G Andre Miller G Baron Davis F RIchard Jefferson F Craig Smith C Jason Collins

#30 Iowa/Wyoming
G Kirk Hinrich G Adam Morrison F Nick Collison F Raef LaFrentz C Patrick O'Bryant

SoCal has some weapons, but I'd say that the team is a bit disappointing for the #3 seed. First, Miller and Davis don't fit well together in the backcourt. They both need to dominate the ball to be effective; Davis is much better creating his own shot than he is spotting up, while Miller isn't much of a shooter at all. Jefferson has had some injury problems and seems like he's lost a step or two from his peak; he's not a top shelf shooter either. Things are worse in the frontcourt. Smith is a high energy player, but he'll never be a star or even someone you're happy starting since he is undersized. Collins is perhaps the worst offense player in the NBA. He's in the league for his defense, obviously, but even that has taken a step back in recent years. I worry that this team will play too much one on one with Davis and Jefferson, with Smith and Collins cleaning up the garbage--but that leaves MIller to stand in the corner and miss a bunch of jumpers. So, they could give Miller the ball and let him get into the lane and draw fouls and create shots for others--but are Smith and Collins going to finish easy opportunities? Is Baron going to be happy standing around on the perimeter. This team just doesn't seem to hang together very nicely.

Iowa/Wyoming aren't good enough to challenge them, probably. Hinrich has totally collapsed this year, but last year he was a strong defensive point guard with a decent jump shot. Morrison was very, very bad last year. He did not shoot the ball well, his defense was pitiful and he rebounded like a point guard. Collison and LaFrentz are at opposite ends of the tall slow soft jump shooting white guy career path. O'Bryant is very big and very raw and can't get on the court. This another low seeded team that will be forced to launch many bad jumpers because they don't have anyone who can play offense in the post or get to the rim. At least these guys rebound a bit better than Oregon...

Team: SoCal
Wins: 592
PPG: 85.78
RPG: 48.19
APG: 19.64
TPG: 19.48

Team: Iowa/Wyoming
Wins: 408
PPG: 82.591
RPG: 51.38
APG: 13.64
TPG: 17.79

This turned out to be a lot closer than I would have guessed. SoCal shot much better on two point attempts, but slightly worse from three point, were slightly outrebounded, and committed a few more turnovers per game. Though they attempted more free throws, Iowa/Wyoming shot a better percentage. I think that the simulation understates the advantage for SoCal. When they are on offense, who guards Jefferson? Morrison is terrible, and Collison and LaFrentz are lousy and too big. Hinrich matches up ok with Davis, but then who guards Miller? It has to be Morrison, since he at least has a chance to stay in front of him, but that leaves Nick Collison trying to guard Jefferson, and that isn't going to work. Look for a steady stream of isolations for Jefferson, with Iowa/Wyoming being forced to double team constantly. On their offense, Iowa/Wyoming won't be able to take advantage of Jefferson because LaFrentz isn't a strong post player, and Collison and O'Bryant can be handled by Smith and Collins. This is a solid win for Southern California.

Southern California next play 4/2.
Tomorrow: #14 Massachusetts/Arkansas vs. #19 Indiana
Full Bracket Here.