#12 North Carolina vs. #21 Maryland

#12 North Carolina
G Chris Paul G Jerry Stackhouse F Josh Howard F Cedric Simmons C Chris Wilcox

#21 Maryland
G Sam Cassell G Jarret Jack G Rudy Gay F Mike Sweetney C Josh Boone

Terps against Tar Heels? Should be a close matchup. On the North Carolina side, Paul is the next great point guard in the league and a dark horse MVP candidate in 07-08, though he's made significant strides from last year to this. Stackhouse is a little overripe; he's grown brittle and lost a step or two, but he's still a shooter and a heady vet. You don't hear much about Josh Howard these days, but he's settled in as Dirk's sidekick in Dallas at just below All-Star level. Simmons is a stiff who has begun the itinerant portion of his career; he's big and young, so he'll keep getting chances. Wilcox is a decent rebounding and defense big guy. You want to run pick and rolls with Paul as your bread and butter if you've got him, but Simmons and Wilcox don't move well and they are not strong jump shooters. The swingmen have high basketball IQs and can find ways to affect the game without being the focus of the offense.

Opposing them is a Maryland team that seems to lack an identity. Cassell is 38; while some people think his move to Boston puts them over the top, it's not clear that he's more valuable than Rondo at this point. Jack and Gay are similar; young, long swingmen who enjoy shooting jump shots and are a bit underathletic. Gay has a little more upside, but Jack is a more finished product: he's a better shooter and defender right now. Sweetney has eaten himself out of the league between last year and this. Boone is interesting; he doesn't really have an offensive game, but he's very long, runs the floor well for a big man, finishes his opportunities and doesn't make mistakes. Maryland doesn't have a star to bail them out at the end of the shot clock (unless you think Sam I Am can still get it done...maybe he can). They'll have to vary their offense to take advantage of matchups, but eventually they're going to run into a team that just has better players. That time might be today...

Team: North Carolina
Wins: 538
PPG: 90.905
RPG: 41.678
APG: 15.98
TPG: 15.21

Team: Maryland
Wins: 462
PPG: 90.118
RPG: 52.9
APG: 17.19
TPG: 20.38

Boy, this is just about as close as could be. Both teams shot nearly identical field goal percentages overall, and Maryland's rebounding advantage was negated by its turnover disadvantage and North Carolina's superior three point shooting. Let's take a close look at defense and matchups. First, there isn't a single Maryland player who is quicker than his North Carolina counterpart; Wilcox and Boone are a wash, and every other position favors Carolina. Cassell has a size and strength advantage over Paul; Sammy is a canny operator on the block, and Maryland would be well served by taking him into the post regularly, especially since it's important to make Paul work on defense. Otherwise, there's not much there for Maryland to exploit on offense-they just have to hope that their jump shots are falling. On the North Carolina side, Paul can get into the lane against Cassell anytime he wants; this will be a huge problem for Maryland, especially since neither Maryland big man is particularly imposing on the defensive end. Howard is bigger and stronger than Gay and Jack; whoever guards him will be vulnerable on isolations, but Howard is not used to being a focal point; his performance if placed in those situations against NBA-level defense is something of an unknown quantity. I can't emphasize enough what a fat waste of talent Sweetney is, but it's unclear whether Simmons is good enough to do anything against him. Stack might break down with so many minutes, but so could Cassell and Sweetney. I don't see anything to budge the prediction of the simulator much one way or another; perhaps just a few more games in North Carolina's direction because of Cassell trying to guard Paul. It's still damned close though; if the Jack/Gay jumpers are falling and Sammy's feeling good, Maryland would win a single game between these two squads.

North Carolina next plays on 3/31 against Florida.
Tomorrow: #13 New Jersey vs. #20 Tennessee
Full Bracket Here.