#6 Illinois vs. #27 South Carolina

#6 Illinois
G Shaun Livingston G Dwayne Wade F Corey Maggette F Shawn Marion C Eddy Curry

#27 South Carolina
G Ray Felton G Anthony Johnson F Jermaine O'Neal F Kevin Garnett C Kwame Brown

Illinois has a team that is perhaps a bit disappointing for the #6 seed. Livingston has a degenerative knee condition that may never allow him to play again. Before the injury, he was a promising big point guard who made too many turnovers and didn't shoot well enough. It's scary to think so, but Wade might be on the decline already: he can't seem to stay healthy and his game is predicated on being able to get into the lane and taking contact. Maggette is another wing player who doesn't shoot well, but he's a very good post up player and one of the best in the league at creating free thow opportunities by abusing smaller players. It would be great to see him as the third wheel on a good team someday since he's been stuck on bad ones for his whole career. Marion's become invisible on offense since leaving Steve Nash, as many predicted. He can't create his own shot and the Heat don't have a point guard, and his odd shooting stroke means that he requires lots of space to get it off. He's still incredibly valuable as someone who can guard five positions. Curry is a dominant post scorer, but a famous whiner and a nonexistent defender and rebounder. Illinois will run offense through Wade, but teams will pack it in: no one wants to shoot threes except Marion, he doesn't shoot them too well, and the other four players score the vast majority of their points in the paint. Their spacing will be all screwed up, and somebody (Maggette? Livingston) is going to be missing a bunch of open jumpers.

Interesting South Carolina team that might give Illinois trouble, but they have one point guard too many and not enough wing guys. Felton has made himself into a solid starting point guard. Anthony Johnson is perhaps stretched as a starter at the point, but he's a better shooter than Felton. O'Neal has really faded on offense, but part of that might be due to the toxic situation in Indiana, and he's still an incredible defensive player. As is Kevin Garnett, my pick for league MVP this year. Brown might be the most disappointing number one overall pick in the history of the NBA, but at least he's still big and athletic, even if his heart and offensive game never came around. The offense should put O'Neal on the block and Garnett in the high post, with Felton and Johnson spotting up and Brown collecting garbage.

Team: Illinois
Wins: 570
PPG: 93.99
RPG: 41.09
APG: 17.98
TPG: 18.35

Team: South Carolina
Wins: 430
PPG: 91.289
RPG: 48.09
APG: 23.36
TPG: 19.363

This is pretty tight in the simulator. Illinois has the shooting advantage at about 50% to 45% overall, but S.C. makes up for that with a seven rebound per game advantage. South Carolina doesn' t really have any wing players; does that hurt them? I say no. They match up well with Illinois for two main reasons: 1) Felton can guard Wade. He's a quick, strong player who gives up a few inches, but it won't be the kind of mismatch that Wade can regularly exploit. 2) Maggette prefers to play on the block and doesn't scare you with his jump shot. O'Neal is a fantastic post defender; he can lay off of Maggette and make him take a bunch of jumpers that he doesn't want to take and make life difficult for him in the post. At the other end, O'Neal's size will force continual double teams by Illinois. This is a great matchup for South Carolina and I'm going to counter-act the simulator and say that they take it, on size advantage, shooting advantage, and K.G.'s heart.

Next: #7 Pennsylvania vs. #26 Alabama
Full Bracket Here.