#9 Michigan vs. #24 West Virginia/Connecticut

#9 Michigan
G Morris Peterson G Jason Richardson F Shane Battier F Chris Webber C Chris Kaman

#24 West Virginia/Connecticut
G Deron Williams (WV) G Jason Williams (WV) F Ryan Gomes (C) F Marcus Camby (C) C Dwayne Jones (WV)

Michigan is missing a point guard, and Peterson and Richardson and Battier are not strong ball handlers. Webber is pretty much finished with that leg injury, though Kaman is a solid scoring and rebounding center. Who runs the offense? Probably Webber from the high post sometimes, and sometimes Richardson and Webber on pick and rolls, with Peterson and Battier spotting up for threes and Kaman down low.

On the other side, Deron Williams is a rising star at point guard, while Jason is pretty much a three point shooter at this stage of his career. Gomes is underrated, and does many things well, including shooting the basketball. Camby is the league's reigning defensive player of the year (though many think that he wasn't the best choice) and is one of the strongest rebounders in the world. He's also an efficient offense player, with range to fifteen feet. Jones is a stiff lay-up-and-dunks-only seven footer, though he does rebound and defend; he's only getting minutes with the Cavs this year because of their injuries. This would be an extremely interesting matchup.

Team: Michigan
Wins: 469
PPG: 92.75
RPG: 44.42
APG: 15.13
TPG: 14.72

Team: West Virginia/ Connecticut
Wins: 531
PPG: 94.05
RPG: 53.32
APG: 23.89
TPG: 18.718

The simulation has this at a virtual dead heat, with WV/C coming out slightly ahead. Remember that the simulation doesn't know that Michigan has no point guard; though they turned the ball over about four times per game less than WV/C in the simulation, almost certainly those turnovers would shoot way up with Richardson or Peterson, mediocre ball handlers even for wing players, trying to run the offense. As for defense, no one on WV/C could guard a vintage Chris Webber, but this version can't run or jump, so Dwayne Jones can handle him easily. Deron Williams has excellent size and strength for a point guard so he can't be taken advantage of defensively, but Jason Williams is undersized and a poor defender. He'll have to try to guard Peterson, and likely the Michgan offense would involve those players posting up J. Williams at every opportunity. This will force WV/U to double team at times, creating open shots for other players. However, Peterson is not an experienced or particularly skilled operator in the post--he usually just sits in a corner and waits for a three point shot to fall into his lap. Also, WV/C plays three excellent defenders alongside J. Williams, including a fantastic weak-side help defender in Camby, and also Jones, who is at least huge. So I think that much of the time, WV/C could get away with playing Peterson one on one (Aside: this discussion is pretty amusing; surely no one has double teamed Morris Peterson since he was playing at Michigan State eight years ago, and maybe not even then, since Mateen Cleaves was the star of those teams).
On the WV/C offensive end, both Williams men are quicker than anyone in the Michigan backcourt, and could be in the lane as much as they like, getting to the line and wreaking havoc, especially since no one in the Michigan front court is an imposing shot blocker. Webber surely can't give you 48 high level minutes at this point, and wasn't a strong defensive player even in his prime; luckily for him, Dwayne Jones' 7.5 usage rate means that he shoots less than nearly anyone in the tournament. All told, I think that the simulation actually understates the West Virginia/Connecticut advantage by 100 games or so, mostly due to the talents of Deron Williams and the lack of Michigan ballhandling. I think that this would be the first tournament game that I'd be really excited to see. It's also the first upset. Remember that NBA States is off for the weekend; I'll hope you'll tune in next week.

West Virginia/Connecticut next plays on 3/28.
Monday: #8 Ohio vs. #25 Colorado/South Dakota
Full Bracket Here.