#8 Ohio vs. #25 Colorado/South Dakota

#8 Ohio
G Kevin Martin G Michael Redd F LeBron James F Ruben Patterson C Calvin Booth

#25 Colordao/South Dakota
G Chauncey Billups (C) G Darrick Martin (C) F Mike Miller (SD) F Michael Ruffin (C) C Jared Reiner (SD)

Ohio has the reigning best player in the world (though he wasn't quite at that level last year), along with what I consider to be the ideal backcourt to supplement his talents. Lots of people think that James doesn't need a point guard because of his domination of the ball and his exceptional court vision; I'm one of them. Martin and Redd are tall, athletic shooting guards who are solid defenders and rebounders, and are capable of creating their own shots but also have exceptional catch-and-shoot strokes. They don't need plays run for them to contribute, but they are capable of carrying a team offensively for stretches. Every team that Ohio faces is going to have at least one serious matchup problem due to the three of them. It's absolutely a championship level backcourt; it's a shame that the frontcourt doesn't pull its weight. Ruben Patterson is nearing the end of a solid career as a gritty, undersized rebounder and defender, and Booth is a stiff who is only in the league because of his height. This team can hurt you in a variety of ways, none of which involve Calvin Booth: pick-and-rolls with James and Patterson; isolations and post-ups for whichever wing player has the most advantageous matchup; Martin and Redd on curls for jump shots; dunks and wide open jump shots for everyone when LeBron gets into the lane.

Opposing them today is an overmatched Colorado/South Dakota team. Billups is a top five NBA point guard and Miller a very good wing scorer, but he's a lousy defender, Reiner is out of the league, and Ruffin and Martin are well on their way. If this matchup is close, there's something wrong with the simulator. Let's take a look...

Team: Ohio
Wins: 866
PPG: 100.04
RPG: 46.91
APG: 17.231
TPG: 14.44

Team: Colorado/South Dakota
Wins: 134
PPG: 83.23
RPG: 49.22
APG: 19.95
TPG: 22.96

Overwhelming victory for the Ohio side. The question, as always with any team he plays against, starts with who guards LeBron James. He's far too big for Martin and too athletic for Ruffin and Miller. That leaves Billups, who is a good defender but gives up five inches and fifty pounds and doesn't have a quickness advantage, and also is the guy who is supposed to be a primary scorer at the other end. Darrick Martin is 5'11"; who does he guard: the 6'6" Redd or the 6'7" Kevin Martin? Miller has the size to handle one of these guys, but not the raw defensive ability. All this adds up to bushels and bushels of points from the Ohio wing players. Oh yeah: Michael Ruffin isn't athletic enough to guard Patterson either. Ohio will have an incredible matchup advantage at two positions and a distinct matchup advantage at two positions and a wash at center. And they can't play zone because of the shooting ability of Martin and Redd. All the C/SD wing guys would foul out in about a quarter and a half. On the C/SD offensive end, Martin is tall and quick enough to make Billups' life difficult, while Redd and James can trade working hard on Miller with taking it easy by guarding the smaller Martin. Thus, I think that the simulation understates the Ohio advantage by about 100 games, even with the already strong 866 win number posted. Reason to worry for Ohio going forward: they were outrebounded by these guys by three boards a game. The front court is going to kill them; it's a matter of when, not if.

Ohio plays next on 3/28 against #24 West Virginia/Connecticut
Tomorrow: #5 Florida vs. #28 Louisiana
Full Bracket Here.