#14 Massachusetts/Arkansas vs. #19 Indiana

Sorry for the delays. We'll get back on course tomorrow with a double post.

#14 Massachusetts/Arkansas
G Will Blalock (M) G Derek Fisher (A) G Fred Jones (A) F Joe Johnson (A) F Corliss Williamson (A)

#19 Indiana
G Bonzi Wells F Jared Jeffries F Zach Randolph C Brad Miller C Alan Henderson

M/A are quite undersized. Blalock's NBA career consists of 14 subpar games for the Pistons last year; this year he's out of the league. He went 6/6 at the line last year; since I didn't want to hand him 100% made free throws across 1000 games, I used his college career mark of 65.3%. Fisher is still making good money at his gritty veteran shooter gig in Los Angeles. Jones is having a nondescript season as an eight/ninth guy for the Knicks; usually the ninth guy doesn't get any minutes, but since Isiah doesn't know what he's doing, they don't have a real rotation. His game is about as exciting as his name. Johnson here continues to fulfill his destiny as the star of bad teams. Williamson retired last fall; he's now an assistant coach at Arkansas Bapist College. It's hard to be a 6'7" post player in the NBA once you get into your thirties. Blalock and Williamson are among the worst players in the tournament. M/A have no size, but they'll also have problems with quick wing players on defense. On offense, whoever is supposed to be guarding Blalock will actually guard Johnson, who isn't good enough to fight through double teams consistently. As long as defenders stay home on Jones and Fisher, they'll be harmless.

Indiana have no point guard and they're going to try to play three post players at once. It might actually work out, because Randolph likes to play down low, while Miller prefers the high post, and Henderson is a terrible offensive player so it doesn't matter if he gets touches where he likes it. One problem is that Bonzi also prefers the low block, and Jeffries can't shoot. No one on this team can shoot, actually: Randolph, almost certainly for the first time in his life, leads his team in three point percentage. Anyone who plays them will play zone (well, as much zone as the NBA allows). The simulator isn't going to know how to deal with this team. Bonus: Bonzi and Zach are among the league's finest sulkers and pouters. Defensively, they'll struggle to defend quick point guards, but Henderson is a solid post defender and Wells and Jeffries excellent wing defenders. Randolph, of course, is famously terrible.

Team: Arkansas/Massachusetts
Wins: 5
PPG: 70.75
RPG: 15.86
APG: 15.49
TPG: 16.7

Team: Indiana
Wins: 995
PPG: 100.05
RPG: 76.29
APG: 18.24
TPG: 24.36

There's no way that the matchup is this lopsided. This is a problem with the simulation: it's designed for teams that have the basic composition of an average NBA team and these teams don't have that composition. One of these teams is playing three guards, a wing forward, and an undersized power forward, and the other is playing two wing guys and three post players. The simulation overvalues the size of Indiana against the quickness of M/A. So, we should basically toss out the wins and losses and look at matchups and statistics. A key to the game is: who has the advantage on offense, the undersized team or the team with no ballhandlers? When M/A have the ball, they'll be able to easily get down the floor into their offense. If I were Indiana, I'd play a triangle and two (or however close to that they could get without violating the NBA rules). Have Jeffries and Wells chase Johnson and Fisher, and put the big guys in the zone. The reason is that there's no way that the post guys can match up with all of M/A's perimeter players, and you can't play a 2/3 or a 1/3/1 because then the shooters for M/A kill you. This way, Indiana can harass M/A's best offensive players with excellent individual defenders and hide the lack of quickness of the big guys. The problem is Fred Jones: he's going to get a ton of open looks this way, and if he knocks them down, it could be a long night for Indiana. Jones shoots three pointers at about 30%; that's a sort of awful number, but it will surely go up with as many open shots as he'll see. Another weakness is Williamson: he's comfortable shooting from fifteen feet and there will be holes in the zone that he can exploit.
When Indiana has the ball, M/A must press full court after every made basket. Indiana has no one who is even an average ball handler, and they are all very slow-footed. Full court pressure from M/A's quickness will force many turnovers and create easy baskets--many more than the simulation knows about, since it doesn't consider defense. M/A should vary their halfcourt defense, playing mostly an aggressive ballhawking and trapping man to man, to attempt to force bad decisions from Indiana's ballhandlers and more turnovers, but they should sometimes fall back into a zone, to bait Indiana's lousy jump shooters into taking bad shots. Once Indiana gets the ball into the post, it's basically all over: it will be a parade of dunks and free throws for Indiana's bigs over M/A's tiny defenders. M/A should double team as often as possible when the ball arrives into the post, because no one on the Indiana side has a reliable jump shot save Brad Miller, and it's difficult to score against a post double team, even when the defenders are undersized. It would take a heady commitment and all out effort by all five M/A guys to make this work, and probably an outstanding defensive coach as well.
I'll be honest: I have no idea who would win this game. When in doubt, go with the big guys. Indiana is the pick.

Indiana next plays on 4/2 against Southern California.
Tomorrow: #11 Georgia vs. #22 Wisconsin.
Full Bracket Here.