#16 Idaho/Minnesota vs. #17 Nevada/Utah

#16 Idaho/Minnesota
G Luke Ridnour (I) G Alan Anderson (M) F Devean George (M) F Kris Humphries (M) C Joel Pryzbilla (M)

#17 Nevada/Utah
G Marcus Banks (N) G Ricky Davis (N) F Devin Brown (U) F Pat Garrity (N) C Scot Pollard (U)

This is a pretty interesting matchup. I/M have a better frontcourt, and N/U have a better backcourt. Who scores for I/M? Ridnour is a decent distributing point guard who doesn't look for his own shot and Anderson has fallen out of the league between last year and this year. The big guys are not strong offensive players (though they are efficient); that leaves (gulp) Devean George, who has been in the news recently for refusing to be traded for Jason Kidd and not for any basketball-related abilities of note. Still, he's a tall, athletic guy who shoots ok; that makes him the star of his team.
On the other end, Davis is a solid scoring wing (though he's completely, unambigously crazy, which is something else that isn't modeled in the simulation). Banks has been buried on the Phoenix bench and has actually played pretty well in Miami since the Shaq trade. Brown is an interesting role player who does everything pretty well but nothing really well; he'll have to do more on this team. Garrity and Pollard are both pretty much finished, unfortunately.

Team: Idaho/Minnesota
Wins: 601
PPG: 86.293
RPG: 59.67
APG: 13.801
TPG: 25.5

Team: Nevada/Utah
Wins: 399
PPG: 82.64
RPG: 36.13
APG: 15.52
TPG: 16.96

I/M wins 60% of the simulated games. They shot the ball and rebounded a litle bit better than N/U. There's reason to think that a game between these two teams might be even closer. Banks is taller, bigger, and stronger than Ridnour, who is not a strong defender. Anderson must guard Brown; he's not a strong defensive player either. N/U could have success attacking the defense of those two players with isolations and post-up plays. Pryzbilla and Humphries are bigger and stronger than the N/U inside players, but they are not talented enough offensively to take advantage. Davis is the best player on the floor and the only one who might command a double team (I'm not sure whether George could handle him one on one). I/M doesn't have a player like that. I think that the simulation, in short, understates that backcourt advantage that I see for N/U, and overstates the frontcourt advantage of the offensively unagressive Pryzbilla and Humphries. I think that this game would be closer to a toss-up than the simulation allows.
However, I/M are stronger rebounders at every position, and when they shoot the ball, it goes in more often. I'm picking Idaho/Minnesota as the winner--narrowly. Turnovers will be a problem for this team going forward: 25.5 is an awfully high per game average.

Idaho/Minnesota plays Texas on 3/27.
Tomorrow: #9 Michigan vs. #24 West Virginia/ Connecticut
Full Bracket Here.