#13 New Jersey vs. #20 Tennessee

#13 New Jersey
G Brevin Knight G Mike Bibby G J.R. Smith F Troy Murphy C Shaquille O'Neal

#20 Tennessee
G J.J. Redick G Rodney Carney F Shawne Williams F Lorenzen Wright C David Harrison

Jersey has sort of a strange team. They've got Andrew Bynum on the bench; if I was using this year's statistics instead of last years, he'd be starting. Knight and Bibby have both slipped; Knight from solid starter to end of the bench guy, and Bibby from borderline All-Star to solid starter. Smith continues to be a talented enigma as his offcourt troubles and dysfunctional relationship with George Karl slide him up and down the Denver depth chart from game to game. Troy Murphy has one of the most ungainly jump shots in the league; it kind of looks like a shot put coming off his hand and he way jumps forward instead of straight up, but he's very effective with it. Shaq was actually very good last year when he was healthy-he just wasn't healthy all that often. The offense will consist in throwing it to Shaq while the other four guys stand around and wait to shoot a jump shot. Not too exciting, but it could be effective.

Tennessee is missing a point guard; Jersey has an extra one; perhaps they could work something out. As it stands, Redick can't really run an NBA offense, and Carney and Williams are poor ballhandlers. This team should commit tons of turnovers. Williams and Carney are athletes in search of jump shots and basketball intelligence. It's hard to believe that Lorenzen Wright is still in the league, isn't it? You can't teach size. Harrison has struggled with drugs and inconsistent effort and has been buried on the Pacer bench for most of this season. There's no star power for Tennesse, and no one really in their prime: Wright is just about done and the other guys are very young. It's hard to figure out how this team will score. Nobody on the wing can get his own shot regularly. Maybe they can try posting up Harrison? He's shown flashes of talent on the block in the past.

Team: New Jersey
Wins: 700
PPG: 97.25
RPG: 45.83
APG: 21.88
TPG: 15.86

Team: Tennessee
Wins: 300
PPG: 89.517
RPG: 48.51
APG: 11.235
TPG: 20.643

New Jersey has a solid lead in the simulation. Check out that assist to turnover ratio for Tennessee; there's really no one getting easy baskets for anyone else and even that number is understated because the simulation doesn't know that one of these guys has to try to run the offense. Bibby has to try to guard Carney; that's a size advantage, but I'm not sure that Carney is talented enough to get a significant edge-especially in the post. Shaq is a nightmare matchup for Harrison; too much size and strength, and Harrison doesn't have the quickness to take advantage. Even a 75% Shaq should be enough here. Big advantages at every position on offense for New Jersey. Redick will probably try to guard Knight, but he's nowhere near quick enough. Smith and Bibby should be mostly neutralized by the length and quickness of Williams and Carney, but Murphy is a big problem for Wright because Murphy loves to hang out on the perimeter. It's hard to know what Shaq does against Harrison; healthy, motivated Shaq kills him, but we don't see that guy too often anymore. I was surprised by the Tennessee rebounding advantage; looking more closely at the numbers, it turns out that both Bibby and Smith are terrible rebounders for their size and position, and that isn't compensated for by the averageness of the other players. That's going to hurt New Jersey going forward, most likely, but not today.

New Jersey plays next on 4/1
Tomorrow: #4 Northern California vs. #29 Oregon
Full Bracket Here.